NFL Picks for Week 16
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Chris Raybon: the vikings are still overrated because of their record (11-3), which they amassed despite passing 44.6 yards per game.
Despite the talent disparity between the two games, the Giants were the better team, placing 22nd overall DVOA to the Vikings at 25th. There’s a slightly bigger disparity when you look at the weighted DVOA, which values movement from recent games and has the Giants 21st and Vikings 26th.
The Giants’ defense is playing the highest men’s coverage in the league, which Kirk Cousins has struggled against. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per target pass attempt against a man compared to 8.3 against a zone. The Giants also blitzed at the league’s highest rate (40.7%), and beating the blitz was also a major problem for Cousins. His Pro Football Focus rating of 52.7 during the blitz ranks 36th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks, and he suffers from dips in efficiency across the board.
- Cousins when not blitzed: 68.4% completion percentage, 7.5 yards per attempt, 95.7 rating
- Cousins vs. blitz: 55.6% completion percentage, 5.6 yards per attempt, 80.4 rating
It wasn’t just the blitz that gave Cousins trouble. He also struggled with the pressure of a four-run, with his passer rating dropping to 79.4 when under pressure.
Despite their happy blitz identity, the Giants are now fourth in overall pressure ratio (24.5%) thanks to a now healthy front four with Kayvon Thidbodeax and Azeez Olujari on the edge and Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence at the interior. New York should be able to have success against a Minnesota offensive line that has Cousins under pressure on 37.0 percent of his stalls, seventh most.
It’s a big reason the Vikings are only 22nd in offensive DVOA and 22nd in heaviest recent play. Williams and Lawrence in particular should be able to do ravaged inside against right guard Ed Ingram and center Austin Schlottman. Ingram is a struggling rookie who ranked 68th in the PFF among 75 qualified guards in pass protection. Schlottman is an undrafted fifth-year pro making his third start of the season in place of Garrett Bradberry (back) who allowed nine pressures in his first two starts.
The Vikings will still move the ball here, but the pressure should help the Giants stop in key situations. That’s been the formula all season, like New York Ranks fourth in allowed red zone conversion rate (50.0%) and fifth in allowed third down conversion rate (34.9%).
It’s surprisingly the Giants’ offense that has been the most efficient among those two, ranking 14th overall and 12th in recent game heavyweight. The Vikings defense, meanwhile, is 20th overall and trending downward, with a 24th-place weighted DVOA ranking. The Vikings defense allowed opponents to move the ball at will – their 5,589 total Yards allowed are a league high — but have managed to stay afloat at times due to creating the ninth-most turnovers (29), which doesn’t bode well against a giant offense tied with Philadelphia for the league lead with just 13. gifts.
One of the biggest reasons the Giants aren’t turning the ball over is the play of Daniel Jones, who leads the league with a 1.0 percent interception rate.
Jones threw just one interception in six road games this season and was one of the best quarterbacks to return to the road throughout his career. According to our Action Labs data, 15-5-1 (75%) ATS as a road dog in his career, including 12-1 (92%) ATS as a road dog under 8 points.
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Chris Raybon: It’s one of the highest totals for the week, as the forecast calls for temperatures “just” 11 degrees below freezing and average wind speeds of “just” 11 mph, although I think that’s is too high not based on the weather, but rather because both the defenses are up, with the Panthers are 10th in DVOA on defense since Week 10, and the the Lions are 15th (although it should be noted that under bets are 6-3 in games pitched by Jared Goff in times under 40).
The Lions defense has made a stunning turnaround since changing their scheme and defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant ahead of Week 9, improving not just against the pass but across the board. Here are their numbers per game before and after making the switch:
- Weeks 1-8: 32.1 points, 421.3 total yards, 0.75 turnovers
- Week 9-15: 19.9 points, 375.7 total yards, 1.71 turnovers
Lions went from dropping 154.9 rushing yards per game in their first seven games to 112.0 in their last seven, which is significant against a Panthers offense that called a crafted run 51.0% of the time since interim coach Steve Wilks took Succession. And even that may sell the Lions short in this game, as 45% of the yardage allowed by Detroit since Week 9 has been to opposing quarterbacks, as they faced a daunting list of top jammers, including Justin Fields and Josh Allen.
Against running backs since Week 8, the Lions have allowed just 56.3 yards for 17.6 gate per game, good for a stellar 3.2 yards per rush allowed.
Sam Darnold isn’t much of a rushing threat — he’s averaging 3.0 carries for 11.7 yards — and will face a Lions defense that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate (31.6 percent). ) when it falls to pass. Darnold has struggled when the defense sends in extra rushers, with his 59.8 PFF rating from the blitz placing him 38th among 48 quarterbacks with at least 20 blitzed dropbacks.
While it’s not one of the worst weather games of the week, it’s worth noting that the Lions offense has seen a massive drop when traveling on the road this season, regardless of the conditions.
- Home: 32.1 points, 341.7 total yards, 0.75 turnovers
- Road: 18.7 points, 401.4 total yards, 1.33 turns
The Lions played good defense in the Jets on the road last week, but it should be noted that although they scored 20 points, they were a Kalif Raymond punt return and burst Jets coverage in fourth and inches away from potentially scoring just six points (nine if you include Michael Badgley’s missed field goal). The Lions don’t think they can rack up huge numbers against a Panthers defense that’s allowed just 13.0 points per game at home since Wilks took over.
Neither offense gets any help from officials, as Shawn Hochuli’s side called 3.0 offensive holding penalties per game, most of any crew and nearly a full penalty per game more than the league average of 2.19. According to our Action Labs data, the under bets are 41-29-3 (59%) all-time in games officiated by Hochili. That includes an 8-5 mark (62%) this season and a 23-5-1 mark (82%) when the total is under 45.
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Chris Raybon: Malik Willis simply handed the ball to Derrick Henry 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns against what was at the time the league’s worst defense to claim a 17-10 win in those teams’ opener, but it could be more of a struggle this time around. The Texans have since improved on run defense and are 10th in DVOA against the run since Week 10.
Additionally, the Titans placed center Ben Jones (concussion) and guard Nate Davis (ankle) on IR this week. Both are big losers, as Jones had a 72.6 PFF rating, eighth of 39 qualifiers at center, and Davis had a 70.6 PFF rating, 18th of 86 qualifiers at guard. The duo joined left tackle Taylor Lewan (knee), meaning more than half of Tennessee’s starting offensive line is now IR.
The Titans also face a bunch of injuries on defense. They ruled out cornerback Krisitan Fulton (groin), linebacker Dylan Cole (ankle) and placed cornerback Terrance Mitchell (hamstring) on IR this week. They also recently lost linebacker David Long (ankle), who ranked 14th out of 80 linebackers at the PFF.
With injuries on both sides of the ball, it’s hardly a gimmick for the Titans, especially with Willis starting in place of the player with the most significant injury (Ryan Tannehill; ankle). Tennessee averaged just 17.0 points per game and 48.5 net passing yards in Willis’ two starts and now face a suddenly feisty Texas team that nearly upset the Cowboys (27-23 loss) and the Chiefs (30-24 loss) over the past two weeks.
The total for this game is in the mid-30s, which makes the underdog even more valuable. According to our Action Labs data, more than one basket underdogs with a total of 47 or less are 64-37 (63%) ATS this season, covering an average of 2.2 points per game.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their betslip on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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