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Dolphins vs Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Underdog on Christmas

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Packers Odds vs. Dolphins

The NFL’s Christmas Day slate kicks off with a clash between two of the most profitable quarterbacks against the spread. Aaron Rodgers is 125-91-4 (58%) all-time ATS, while Tua Tagovailoa is 19-13-1 (59%) ATS in her career.

So which side of a Packers vs Dolphins pick should you be on to start the holiday betting festivities? Read on for more analysis below before making a choice.

Packers vs Dolphins Game Analysis

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the stat match between the Packers and Dolphins:

Packers vs. DVOA Distribution of Dolphins
Overall DVOA 7 18
Pass DVOA 14 26
cutting-edge DVOA 3 11
Overall DVOA 3 22
Pass DVOA 2 8
cutting-edge DVOA 11 32

The Packers’ offense is getting into shape just in time for the stretch run, averaging 26.6 points per game over their last five after posting just 17.1 per game over their first nine .

Rodgers should be able to single out a Dolphins defense that allows for the third-highest completion rate (68.3%) and sixth-most yards per game (246.3) while intercepting passes in fourth. lowest rate (1.3%).

Bet Green Bay vs. Miami to FanDuel

Basically, the Dolphins play men’s coverage at the third-highest rate and blitz at the seventh-highest rate, and defensive coordinator Josh Boyer has stuck to that philosophy despite a second loss and a year down from best running back. corner. Xavien Howard, whose 54.1 pfft the coverage grade ranks 95th out of 121 qualified cornerbacks.

Even at this point in Rodgers’ career, this type of strategy tends to be futile, as he ranks third against the blitz and averages more than a yard more per attempt against a man than against a zone.

Christian Watson gives Rodgers a legitimate batsman on the outside. The second-round rookie pick is averaging 4.29 yards per carry for men’s coverage this season, which is second in the league among 96 qualified wide receivers, according to PFF.

Watson’s presence opens up the entire offense and relieves Allen Lazard, who is also quietly in the first 25 yards per run against man coverage (2.30).

The Packers are second in offensive DVOA since Week 10, and it’s no surprise their rise coincides with Watson’s breakthrough at threelanding game against the cowboys – the start of a five-game span that saw him score an incredible eight touchdowns averaging 71.8 acceptance sites per game.

The Dolphins’ best attribute on defense is their ability to stop the run, but the Packers boast a quick top-three offense. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and company smashed their way to 138 combined yards and two rushing touchdowns last week against a Rams defense that ranks in the top five against the run, so I expect the Packers to be able to run despite having an above-average point defense.

Miami ranks 27th in third down conversion rate allowed (43.7%) and 26th in red zone conversion rate allowed (62.0%), so the Packers think they can move the ball and score some points.

Of course, we should expect the Dolphins to do the same when they have the ball, as they average 27.0 points in the 11 games Tagovailoa has started and finished. But while the Packers’ offense is in full swing, the Dolphins’ offense hits a bump in the road.

Tagovailoa leads the league in DVOA on midfield passes, and he also leads the league in midfield pass attempt rate (47%), but defenses are starting to put defenders in the right places to take those shots And disrupt the timing of the entire pass offense.

This has resulted in a massive drop in effectiveness for Tagovailoa in the last four games compared to the first eight:

  • First eight games: 71.0% completion rate, 9.13 yards per attempt, 7.3% touchdown rate, 1.2% interception rate
  • Last four games: 52.8% completion rate, 7.66 yards per attempt, 4.7% touchdown rate, 1.6% interception rate

With the exception of completion rate, these are still decent numbers, but they’re a far cry from the elite form he showed at the start of the season. The result has been a less consistent offense that has converted just 25.5% of its third downs over the past four games.

Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry is rightly criticized at times for his heavy zone scheme, but coverage tends to limit opponents in the middle. The Packers are 12th in the DVOA in middle passes, including third in middle passes beyond 15 yards.

And despite a rocky start to the season that saw Justin Jefferson dust them for 184 yards in Week 1, the Packers secondary is allowing just 135.2 yards per game to wide receivers (135.2), which bodes well. against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I’d be careful not to overemphasize the Dolphins’ three-game losing streak – the 49ers, Chargers and Invoices the opponents are formidable – but I also think it’s clear to anyone who’s seen these games that there’s more to the offense’s recent struggles than just the strength of the schedule.

The Packers have a top-eight pass defense and should be able to replicate much of what worked for those teams schematically against the Dolphins’ offense.

Green Bay’s weakness on defense comes against the run, but while Mike McDaniel has overseen a heavy offense as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, as the Dolphins’ head coach his offense sits at 22.4 rushes per game (the second least in the league).

Interestingly enough, the Dolphins have outright lost in two of their top three running performances this season.

It should also be noted that there is rain in the forecast, but I don’t think that gives either team an advantage as the Packers have the best running offense and the worst defense. of running in this game, while the Dolphins have the best passing offense and the worst passing. defense.

Once upon a time there was a tale that playing at Florida State was Rodgers’ kryptonite after he had a few bad games there in the late years, but he went 4-2 ATS in the Sunshine State since 2014.

The Packers’ strengths match up nicely with the Dolphins’ weaknesses, but the same can’t necessarily be said upside down.

The Dolphins hit the ground running this year while the Packers stumbled out of the gate, but in their current forms they’re tied despite what an 8-6 vs. 6-8 matchup might otherwise indicate.

In fact, the underdogs have always been crushed in Week 16 against opponents like the Dolphins. According to our Action Labs data, the road underdogs in Week 16 have gone 46-24-3 (66%) ATS since 2005 against an opponent with 6-8 wins.

It’s also the type of spot you want to support Rodgers. Since Matt LaFleur became Green Bay’s head coach, Rodgers is 11-4 ATS as a dog, averaging 2.8 points per game and winning 10 of those 15 games.

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